Sunday Signal #5

Each week I consume 500+ pieces of content in tech and AI. I filter them and send you the best, every Sunday.

Hey friends 👋 ,

We had a wild week launching V2 of my startup, Tribescaler. As I mentioned in this tweet, there is never a right moment to launch. If you launch when you feel ready, you launched too late. The wonderful thing about writing this newsletter every Sunday (and Wednesday) is it keeps me on the ball with the latest developments in the space. How do I synthesise them? That's what 'Alex's Analysis' is for– a new section I've added this week. Time for some Sunday Signal.

Growing up in England with the surname 'Banks', my nickname at school quickly turned into 'Banksy'. Needless to say, it sparked a life-long fascination with contemporary art. Speaking of art– and Banksy for that matter– today's Through the Noise is brought to you by Masterworks.

In the same year that everyday investors lost a whopping $350 billion, Masterworks had its best year ever. Their 9 art sales returned $25.8 million to investors – a record amount. Talk about a Happy New Year.

So, what did investors do with their cash? Charter a yacht in Ibiza? Finally close on that Alpaca farm? Maybe save a little?

Either way, Masterworks wants to do the same thing for you. This fintech unicorn is unlocking an asset class that was once only available to billionaires.

To kick off the new year, Masterworks has invited us to skip the waitlist and open a free, no-obligation account today using our own Through the Noise link.

See important Regulation A disclosures.

AI Second Brain, GPT Takes the Bar Exam and Cloning Your Voice

Noteworthy News

• 🔗 Link: Is Microsoft about to get the deal of the century? Or is Sam Altman unloading OpenAI at just the right time?

• 🔗 Link: AI and the Big Five. Will OpenAI become the platform on which all other AI companies are built?

• 🔗 Link: How GPT-3 will turn your notes into an actual second brain.

• 🔗 Link: OpenAI’s GPT-4 will launch only when they can do it safely & responsibly.

• 🔗 Link: CEO of Google's DeepMind, Demis Hassabis hinted today at a 2023 private beta release of "Sparrow" (DeepMind's version of ChatGPT) that will be capable of citing sources for its responses.

• 🔗 Link: Washington University sends email to staff regarding ChatGPT.

• 🔗 Link: GPT takes the bar exam.

Cool Creations

• 🔗 Link: Stability AI is working on an open-source ChatGPT.

• 🔗 Link: DeepMind announces DreamerV3, the first general algorithm to collect diamonds in Minecraft from scratch.

• 🔗 Link: Jay Hack released Tensai, your code assistant enabling you to have conversations with your codebase.

• 🔗 Link: Digitally clone your own voice in 3 seconds with VALL-E.

• 🔗 Link: An AI-powered design platform for branded content.

• 🔗 Link: Measuring your heart rate through your webcam.

Top Tweets

• 🔗 Link: OpenAI's 7th birthday story from the perspective of an intern.

• 🔗 Link: The best AI products will be the ones that are overly-focused on the user experience.

• 🔗 Link: Providing mental health support to 4,000 people using GPT-3.

• 🔗 Link: If you want a laugh this Sunday– this ChatGPT conversation is hilarious.

Startup Scene

• 🔗 Link: Agritech startup Cropin secures $13.7M in its Series D funding from Google and others.

• 🔗 Link: Oxbotica raises $140M Series C to deploy its operating system for universal autonomy.

Alex's Analysis

So it looks like Altman is getting a great deal with Microsoft as their 'fairy godmother'. For me, it seems the transaction is unusually large. Let's review the deal terms we know so far:

• Microsoft is investing $10B into OpenAI at a $29B post-money valuation ($19B pre-money valuation)

Old info:

• Microsoft gets 75% of OpenAI profits until it recoups $10B

• After recouping $10B, the ownership structure becomes Microsoft: 49%, other investors: 49% and OpenAI’s nonprofit parent: 2%

New info (thanks to Gary Marcus):

• Once $92 billion in profit plus $13 billion in initial investment are repaid to Microsoft and once the other venture investors earn $150 billion, all of the equity reverts back to OpenAI.

In my eyes, OpenAI is paying $92B of interest on a $13B loan from Microsoft. What's in it for OpenAI? Microsoft provides OpenAI with the necessary infrastructure to build AGI. It's OpenAI's intent to have achieved AGI when the $92B has been repaid to get all the equity back and be a trillion-dollar company. Home in time for tea and medals.

• OpenAI is expected to generate $1B revenue by 2024

• Alibaba IPO was $22B, Facebook IPO was $16B, Uber IPO was $8B

• OpenAI is in a unique position with all the cash they have piling up

It begs the question– how do you price AGI right now? You can't.

Weird DALLE of the Week

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